Soooooooo....how did we wind up with a bit of late November weather crammed into our second week of October? It was all thanks to a large upper level trough that slammed down the Eastern seaboard and provided us with unsettled weather and record cold temperatures. The long range models seem to indicate October temperatures are here to stay thru early next week, with a bit of rain heading our way this weekened. How much rain will depend on how the remnants of Hurricane Rick - now in the eastern Pacific - interact with the overall weather picture over the next several days. (That seems to be about the only way we'll see any tropical impacts this year as El Nino has effectively squashed the Atlantic hurricane season.)
As far as the overall winter outlook several sources (both government and private forecasters) are calling for the Mid-Atlantic to be colder and wetter than normal. One prognosticator has most Virginia sites receiving double the average amount of snow this winter. That would mean over 30" total snow this winter for the Fredericksburg area. If that happens I hope the snow lovers get their fill, 'cause I can't say I'm one of them!