A Monday chase this week was always a faint hope at best and it really seems to be off the table now with the short wave tracking too far north to fire decent convection anywhere nearby. As for later in the week the GFS and European models are in…
A small bit of lift provided by a small vort center crossing Virginia Monday could (and I emphasize “could”) combine with surface-based CAPEs near 500 and marginal helicities to provide a slim chase possibility Monday afternoon in southern sections of …
This is the surface-based CAPE depiction for next Wednesday afternoon from last night’s 6Z GFS run. The GFS has been trending this direction with similar – but with less CAPE – results for Tuesday through Friday afternoons next week over the Mid-…
Since I won’t have any March 2013 chases to crow about I decided to dip into the archives and post this photo from March 22 2010. It shows a lowering underneath a storm in Madison County Virginia that was traveling northwest…yes, that’s right, …
With Arctic Oscillation values plummeting to rarely seen negative values (-5 or lower) the odds of spring weather for the Mid-Atlantic anytime soon are just about nil…meaning, of course, that convective storms and thus chasing will be postponed until…
I’ve been watching this setup since the European model went crazy with a coastal storm during this time period. Fortunately – for me as a non-snow person – the Euro has backed off that idea while the GFS is now indicating instability Tuesday afte…
So the long range GFS wasn’t that far off in predicting potential convection over NC this week (see previous post). Unfortunately this isn’t robust enough to tempt me to head to the eastern part of that state…but more convection will be on the …
I know, I know, this is “wishcasting” at its most desperate…but it IS March and I need a stormchase badly! A 500 mb shortwave over the Mid-Atlantic, plenty of moisture, and warmer surface temperatures. I’ll take it plus some CAPE and a bit…
The post title refers both to geographic and calendar considerations for some Mid-Atlantic chasing. Of course folks have already had chasing opportunities this year in the southern Plains and the Deep South and I’m monitoring the moisture conditi…
I finally took the plunge to convert my latest book to an electronic version. It is available on Blurb.com for the iPad/iPhone/iTouch devices that have the iBooks app. The good news is that this makes it much less expensive than even the ch…
