The GFS model still holds out hope for some decent convective action this coming Saturday in OK/KS as a short wave pulls through the Central Plains. Unfortunately that doesn’t do anything for chasing here in the Old Dominion since that feature…
I should hasten to say that one should never say “never”…but it looks like the 2012 storm chase season is fading fast here in the Old Dominion. The last few opportunities have been marginal at best with weak instability even tho’ the wind shear…
This is the radar reflectivity forecast for 5:00 pm Thursday from yesterday morning’s 4 km NCEP WRF-NMM 12Z model run. It’s a bit more optimistic for convection over the southern Piedmont than last night’s 0Z run of the operational 12 km NCEP N…
SPC is showing another potential for severe storms in Virginia as a cold front approaches Saturday afternoon and evening. After a peek at the models it looks like this setup will be similar to this past Tuesday’s: low CAPE (instability) and …
Turns out today wouldn’t have been a good chase day even if I could have gone out. The low overcast inhibited visibility and the rapid storm motions and early squall line formation would have combined for a very frustrating day. It turned o…
Just pored through the last few runs of both the NAM and the GFS and the two of them show conflicting instability forecasts – and thus conflicting storm potential – for the Virginia Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. From last night’s 0Z run to this aft…
This is the SPC Day 3 convective forecast showing severe weather potential for Virginia on Tuesday afternoon as a strong cold front punches through the area. That 30% area bears watching as it could lead the SPC to consider a Moderate Risk if the…
Via Twitter I came across this blogpost that describes a “second season” for storm chasing in the U.S., particularly in the East. A perusal of stormchase blogs and forums over the past few years corroborates this as strong autumn cold fronts clas…
There were multiple severe thunderstorm watches in Virginia today, including one centered on the area we chased, but all went for naught as we busted (again). I was pretty certain any storms that did fire would do so east of the Blue Ridge so my …
So the SPC thinks we have a chance at some severe weather tomorrow…Given a quick perusal of the NAM and GFS models I would agree with this so I’m currently making plans to head east of the Blue Ridge mountains over to the Piedmont. A strong col…
