Been tracking the potential for severe weather across the country this week. Here’s the NWS Sterling Office’s latest forecast discussion for Wednesday:”PREFRONTAL TROF AND CDFNT WILL ENTER FCST AREA ON WED. ALTHOUGH BNDRY LYR XPCD TO RMN STABLE DESPIT…
The cold front associated with the severe weather the past couple of days is shown here on the 1601Z visible satellite image. I added the blue line for emphasis, but it’s pretty easy to tell where the front is by the line of convection. Myrtle Beach …
The 12Z NAM run is now showing 500-750 J/kg of CAPE for tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon in eastern Virginia. That’s not impressive until one realizes how good the shear and helicity values look, which means that we’ll be looking at a classic low CAPE /…
Both the NWS Sterling forecast discussion and the models are hinting at possible instability Tuesday and/or Wednesday afternoon this week. The really interesting thing is that the wind shear, moisture, and helicity will be in place to almost certainly…
Maybe….and then again maybe not. The GFS model is now indicating some CAPE in central and northern Virginia for next Wednesday afternoon (11/16) as a front approaches, accompanied by negative LI’s and some decent wind shear. Admittedly this is a lo…
This article shows the correlation between the Hokie stormchase team and the new meteorology major at Virginia Tech that formally begins with the upcoming spring semester. The planning stages for the 2012 stormchase are already underway, and yours tru…
This radar representation from 10:22 a.m. today show an indicated area of rotation during our October surprise nor’easter, a fabrication just as trustworthy as the hail markers that were shown earlier in the morning. At least I can explain the “hail”…
This link provides the final data from the official storm survey conducted by the NWS Sterling team. It appears that the tornado in Fauquier county that occurred around 5:00 pm Oct. 13th was from the same portion of the storm that produced the norther…
With the shear in place and a nearby surface low pressure all I’m waiting on is some sunshine to fire off storms and provide the impetus for me to scoot out the driveway for a chase. Hopefully the cold air wedge over the Piedmont will give way to the …
