After a good night’s sleep my frustration at missing yesterday’s tornadic storms has quieted. I’ve realized that no one expected the magnitude of the outbreak so I’m not the only one caught unprepared for a wild October chase day in northern Virginia….
This is the feature that distracted me from intercepting the tornadic storm near Culpeper.
The reason? I missed every possible tornadic storm this afternoon. My original target was east of Culpeper to intercept a tornado warned cell that was cruising northward from Louisa county where a tornado with damage was reported in Mineral. This sa…
The upcoming coastal low pressure originally appeared to have a chance of tracking west of Virginia, which would have situated the Old Dominion firmly in the warm sector (or in the right front quadrant of a tropical system) and providing impetus for so…
Today’s setup just didn’t look good enough to plan a chase but I woke up from a brief after lunch nap to the sound of thunder and a line of storms heading directly toward us. I couldn’t say no, so after watching the line for a while I noticed one cell…
Both the GFS and the NAM are showing some surface-based instability for both Monday and Wednesday afternoons but I’m not holding my breath for anything chaseable. The previous “setups” have proven shaky at best and this one looks like it will follow t…
So far the tropics haven’t provided any convection worth chasing here in northern Virginia, altho’ I did go out once or twice over the past couple of weeks to see what could be seen (which wasn’t much). Given that we’re now past the peak of hurricane …
This radar grab from Wednesday evening shows a tornado warning and the accompanying rotation over Dahlgren Virginia. This was the second tornado warning of the evening – the first being a bit further east over the Northern Neck – so the 5% probability…
As of the 12Z runs this morning both the NAM and the GFS models are showing sufficient instability (CAPE) and wind shear Wednesday afternoon to produce some decent storms in northern Virginia. The lift mechanism will be the currently stationary front …
The models have spoken: remnants of TS Lee will be in place to provide conditions for rotating storms in eastern Virginia. Now, if the sun can poke through Wednesday afternoon and provide some instability…
