If this forecast track and timing for Tropical Storm Lee’s remnants holds, northern Virginia could see a potentially good chase day this coming Thursday afternoon if sunshine can stir up some instability. I’ll be monitoring the situation!
This Storm Prediction Center graphic for Day 4 (Labor Day Monday) looks suspiciously like the Day 4 graphic posted yesterday that covered Sunday. Guess the models slowed things down overnight.
UPDATE 4:00 p.m.: Just rechecked the Day 4-8 convective …
Hmmmm…decent chance of a chase day this coming Sunday! I’ll have to keep an eye on the models starting tomorrow sometime.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) centered a slight risk for severe weather in my chase area and I took full advantage, leaving home around 2:00 p.m. to head for the Route 29 corridor near Culpeper in hopes of catching a discrete storm in the lee of th…
When the SPC listed Northern VA today as not only under a Slight Risk for severe weather but also with a 5% tornado probability I had my gear ready to go by lunchtime. Shear looked good, instability was excellent for the Mid-Atlantic, a prefrontal tro…
Given recent weather-related tragedies – one being the stage collapse at the Indiana State Fair – I have been more cognizant of people’s tendency to either misinterpret or ignore official weather forecast terms. Pondering this and wondering what may …
After a weekend away we arrived home an hour before storms hit the Fredericksburg area. I decided to give “chase” from my driveway as (a) I was done with driving for the day, (b) the storms were in a line that would have necessitated a continuing east…
Today was supposed to be the best chasing conditions in several weeks, given a surface low crossing Virginia and plenty of wind shear, moisture, and a frontal approach. So what happened? Overcast from an earlier mesoscale convective system (MCS) blot…
The SPC had our area listed under a 5% chance of severe weather Monday August 1st with high winds the main threat. When storms began firing and moving southeast I took notice of a complex northwest of Culpeper and ignored a juicier set of cells traver…
Here at the height of the summer doldrums it’s hard to scare up a storm or two to chase. Recent activity has stayed well to the south across central and southern Virginia as the racetrack around the heat dome over much of the country has steered storm…
