This is the Storm Prediction Center’s convective forecast graphic for Tuesday, May 3rd. After a quick glance at a model (the NAM) there appears to be plenty of instability and wind shear available for some chaseable storms. Unfortunately I …
After perusing the model outputs the morning of April 27 my pulse quickened a bit. The wind shear from the surface up to 500 mb (~18,000 feet) was noteworthy, and the forecast low level helicities for late afternoon were off the charts. I was positiv…
This is the first video clip of the second wall cloud / funnel / tornadic storm this afternoon. This is a brief clip from my low-tech non-HD video. The location is near Chancellorsville Battlefield, in the median of Rte. 3 looking northwest.
Quick post of a couple of pictures and brief writeup. I have videos to edit plus there are more storms on the way that I might have to check out in a night chase.I started out heading toward Culpeper today but was redirected – via my newly integr…
The SPC has our immediate area on the fringes of potential severe weather both this afternoon (Saturday) and Easter Sunday, but I’m not jumping up and down about the possibilities after reviewing the models. Trust me, I will be watching radar and…
One of the hardest decisions I’ve had to make in recent years was to not chase today. I could list all the main factors (too much overcast and limited visibility, no mobile radar access, storms traveling in excess of 60 mph, …) but the truth is…
The Storm Prediction Center has upped the ante for tomorrow by calling for a Moderate Risk in the coastal Carolinas. Meanwhile Northern VA is likely to be under the gun as well for severe storms with potential for rotation which should roll throu…
The models have been hinting at the chances for some strong storms Saturday, and now the SPC has chimed in with their evaluation. The forecast text uses words like “low-level shear” and “rotating storms”, which leads to the “T” (tornado) word.&nb…
I’ve been keeping an eye on this coming Monday as another potential chase day, but the latest model runs all seem to have slowed down the passage of an approaching cold front that would trigger storms. It looks like another nocturnal frontal pass…
This is early spring in its full glory…nighttime cold frontal passages that nix chasing but tend to keep me awake listening for storms anyway. The pre-frontal line of storms that was pounding its way thru KY and WV is weakening a bit as it runs…
