It now appears that strong storms will blow through here late tonight, with another possibility of storms tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Models are showing a strong line coming through the Fredericksburg area around 3:00 a.m. Wednesday mor…
There is at least a bit of forecast instability tomorrow afternoon that is backed up by the Storm Prediction Center’s general thunder forecast for our area. We may have a few booms tomorrow but it doesn’t look like a chase opportunity.Wednesday, …
Yep, and here the link to an article about it. I didn’t even know there was such a cloud classification but apparently it’s a pretty impressive event.Meanwhile there’s not much on the chasing horizon. The next forecast for convection here i…
Sorry for this diversion from storm chasing. I had to post this link to Roger Pielke’s blog. He articulates a lot of what I’ve been trying to say over the past few year regarding the whole global warming thing. The climate models that…
Even tho’ the current radar shows storms moving southeastward along I-64 nearing Richmond we had no such luck around here today. Chaseable storms have been scarce as hens teeth (does anybody still use that ancient analogy?) since early July aroun…
It’s not really impressive, but this is the simulated radar for this afternoon at 6 pm (or is that evening?). This and the 4 km WRF model show limited convection in the area late today so I’ll be keeping an eye on radar in case I get the itch to …
Simulated radar view for 7:00 pm tomorrow shows convection in the area. That’s right about dark, but I could be tempted to chase if the setup is close enough (or if it’s strong enough and I can get to it!). Keeping my 2010 chase season hope…
This was a surprise when I checked the models and the SPC Day 3 (above). There is decent CAPE and a negative LI for Monday afternoon thanks to a forecast frontal zone setting up near the Mason-Dixon line. I’ll certainly keep this on the cha…
It’s still baseball season so the analogy holds. We had plenty of wind shear Thursday with a number of weak updrafts radar-indicated to have rotation. However, the heavy rain, low ceilings, rapid storm movements, and poor visibility all com…
Thursday may be back on the chasing menu. The 12Z runs of both the WRF and GFS have a touch of CAPE showing at 18Z tomorrow, with rather insane shear values (directional and speed) given the close passage of the low center just to our west. …
