Today’s cold frontal passage provides more fodder for my pet hypothesis regarding the “Toilet Bowl” effect regarding the tendency of storms to divide around – and miss – Fredericksburg. As the hypothesis goes, with a generally northwest-to-southe…
At 2:38 this afternoon Shannon Airport registered a temperature of 100 degrees F with a dewpoint of 77. Any way you slice it that’s hot! Tomorrow’s forecast high of 91 will feel like a refreshing spring day in comparison! We’re also u…
I need to write up Tuesday’s (6/22) chase before I chase this afternoon, as a cold front is kicking off a line of storms that is approaching from the northwest. Anyway Tuesday’s setup looked good for mid-afternoon as two of the local models showe…
(a) I did chase…twice.(b) I saw a probable funnel on one storm and called in a rotating wall cloud report on another (the northern warned storm shown below with velocity data – yes it was rotating.)(c) I blew one of my own chasing axioms: never…
The Storm Prediction Center has extended their Slight Risk area further east and south to cover most – if not all – of my chase areas, so it would seem that they agree with me on the potential for severity tomorrow (that sounds a bit pompous written li…
This forecast graphic for 8 pm Tuesday shows a decent amount of CAPE (instability) for our region, and the SPC also has us in/near a Slight Risk region. A survey of the models shows some directional wind shear (change in direction with height) bu…
As we approach the summer solstice – the day the sun reaches its maximum northward point – the days are the longest they will be all year long. Since the additional heat this imparts to the atmosphere lags behind a few weeks our hottest part of t…
Reference my concern over the higher humidity indicated in the NWS Sterling forecast for this week as exhibited by the forecast low temperatures in the 70’s: the latest graphic forecast has low temperatures in the 60’s Thursday thru Saturday.&nbs…
I had every intention of chasing this afternoon, especially given the available instability and shear values. However after a night of little sleep and after spending all day slouching around the house not feeling well I decided discretion was th…
The cold fronts have begun their summertime slowdown. A weak front passed through last night but didn’t go very far south. That’s why we’ve had easterly winds today, keeping a low cloud deck wedged in between the Piedmont and the Atlantic a…
