I did chase today, starting out in Culpeper at 4:30 to – hopefully – intercept a lone cell out ahead of the approaching cold front. The models and forecasts indicated that a cap (an upper level “lid” on convection) existed but would start breaking dow…
Glad to see the SPC agrees with my analysis of tomorrow – Thursday – as a potential chase day! CAPE looks to be nearing 1000, and upper level winds approaching 50 knots should be enough to create reasonable convective havoc. The SPC text mentions the…
Here’s the temperature map for tomorrow at 2 pm EDT showing more of today’s July-like heat vice what April should be like:After the cold front comes through Thursday night and drags a cooler air mass into the area, here’s Friday’s 2 pm temperature map:…
Although the day started with the NWS not too excited about storms in our area, and even though the SPC didn’t have us under a slight risk for severe weather, Mother Nature improvised in the form of a lee trough that focused the existing instability an…
Dual purpose post over at Storm-R-Us.
Things have changed a bit since last night’s model runs. The GFS and the European models are now forecasting a decently strong cold front to push through here late Thursday afternoon, with at least a modicum of CAPE present to fire storms. Wind shear…
Both the GFS and the European models are showing a cold front approaching the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday afternoon, with a bit of convective instability (CAPE) out ahead of it. This morning’s forecast discussion from NWS Sterling casts doubt on the tim…
High temperature records are being set over a wide swath of Virginia…but not here. Why, you ask? Because the nearby water sources (Atlantic Ocean, Chesapeake Bay, Potomac River, etc.) are still pretty chilly even though the air mass is fairly warm….
It’s been a while since we’ve had an upper level ridge over the East Coast. Seems as if most of the past four months we’ve been shivering under a semi-permanent trough that brought us the cold air and storminess of the late departed winter. The large…
It now appears that – rather than Monday and Thursday – we will see cold frontal passages through here on Sunday and Wednesday of next week. The one on Sunday won’t have much to work with for rain or storms, but Wednesday’s event looks to have some co…
