Things are looking up this week! Yesterday’s forecast somehow missed the period of sunshine we enjoyed during late afternoon, and today’s forecast seems to have overblown the threat of showers as both the upper level low and the surface low – now off …
I was correct about the SPC downgrading the severe risk for our area from the “See Text” they had us under. With the more southerly route taken by the upper level low we have remained in a more stable regime than originally forecast, so chasing was no…
With a surface low forecast to form off the Tidewater area we will likely see some heavy rain in the I-95 corridor tonight. Additionally the rainy conditions will hang around longer than originally thought since this low will be slow to move off to th…
One thing you can count on this time of year: the models have a hard time adjusting to the dynamic conditions of spring. Thus I wasn’t really surprised – maybe a bit disappointed – to see that the forecasts for tomorrow’s potential convection had ch…
The local NWS forecast doesn’t mention thunderstorms for Monday, but both this model and others show a modest amount of instability in our area from a surface low pressure system that is forecast to transit southeastern Virginia that afternoon. Also, …
Latest NWS Sterling forecast for tomorrow (Friday): “Rain before 11am, then rain and snow between 11am and 1pm, then a slight chance of rain after 1pm. Temperature falling to around 42 by 1pm.” That’s a bit different than today’s 77 degrees! Th…
Couple days of sun, couple days of rain, some wind, alternating cool and warm temperatures…yep, sounds like spring in Virginia! Today’s showers will morph into a couple of sunny days with highs in the 60’s, then more rain will enter the picture on T…
This video, sped up 4 times, shows the rain free base I was observing yesterday from a position just off Rte 29 south in northern Madison county. Note the cloud motions in the foreground (left to right) versus the almost static features in the backgro…
Given the forecasts – including a 5% “See Text” from the SPC – and surface conditions today I decided at noon that chasing was worth a try. There were storms east and west of I-95 at that point, but the sky was clearing west of I-95 and was a better b…
Latest model runs show enough instability and moisture coupled with upper level cold air to cause the SPC to issue a “See Text” 5% probability for severe weather in our area on Monday. The text discussion mentions mainly a hail threat for us, so I’ll …
