The upper level storm system out in the Plains produced at least one photogenic tornado captured by stormchasers today in a cold core setup, meaning an upper level cold pool of air created enough instability coupled with the vorticity – “spin” – from t…
The models have obviously trended warmer the last few runs as the NWS Sterling forecast office has upped our high temperature forecasts to reach the low 60’s most of this week, including today. That’s quite all right with me since it is meteorological…
This morning’s GFS model run looks better for convective potential next Friday afternoon, altho’ the dewpoints look a bit low. There’s still a lot of number crunching that is to happen before then plus a lot of other models to check so I’m not allowi…
F3 tornado Remington VA 17 Sept 2004The Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM) conducts an annual tornado drill to train folks what to do should a tornado approach your home, school, or place of business. Since recent years have brought st…
Convection is getting closer to us! This is the forecast mixed layer CAPE (convective average potential energy) for next Friday afternoon, showing some instability in southeastern Virginia. Actually last night’s model run had us under some instabilit…
Two videos of the 1991 devastating Andover Kansas tornado just became available on the Web. This is a classic F5 tornado that is still being studied. The first video is of the tornado’s approach to a subdivision, and the second video is of the incred…
The average high temperature for early March is in the low fifties but you wouldn’t know it by today’s readings. However that is about to change as of Saturday as some warm air filters in here and stays until mid-week next week. After that more cold …
Looking at the latest model runs leads me to believe this week’s nor’easter will stay far enough off the coast to keep us out of the main precipitation bands. That, and the trend toward above-freezing surface temperatures, means that we’ll most likely…
The GFS setup for 6 pm Monday March 8th. It’s still a long way off but it could be a chase day in the southern Plains, especially when the upper level winds are considered. Can it be long before we start seeing daytime CAPE in the Mid-Atlantic?
The graphic shows yet another strong nor’easter off the Virginia capes next Wednesday morning. Both this model -the GFS – and another long range calculation – the European model – indicate this storm will stay close enough to the coast to throw signi…
