Traffic camera from Afton Mountain. Sure you want to be driving today?

This is definitely one of those storms during which if you want an accurate snow prediction just stick your head out your front door periodically. Overnight the models sneaked the deeper snow totals closer to us, and even the National Weather Service…

Latest HPC graphic for probabilities of more than 4″ of snow shows the overall track has shifted slightly north of where yesterday’s graphic indicated. My last tweak for snow totals for Fredericksburg is now 3-5″, but for those that live a few miles s…

Okay, one last “adjustment” in the forecast. Overnight the weather models re-cast the track of the storm system even further south than previous runs, and the major model forecasts are now in agreement. Thus we will see less snow than I’d thought, m…

Translated, that means I’m going out on a limb in this post. Given the latest (12Z) model runs I’m predicting 6-8″ of snow for the Fredericksburg area starting after 10 pm Friday night and ending sometime late Saturday night. I realize I’m ahead of t…

As I’ve stated many times a day can make a significant difference between forecast model runs. Today’s runs indicate that most of this weekend’s moisture will now head further to the south than yesterday’s data showed, meaning less snow for us than the…

This forecast graphic shows a significant amount of precipitation headed our way this weekend. This isn’t all of it, just part, and the surface temperature looks to be cold enough for ALL of it to be snow. By my quick count I just added up the potent…

SPC has a slight risk for tomorrow’s East Coast storm creeping into coastal NC. Granted that we have several more weeks of winter to go, but can Virginia spring storm chasing be far away?

Now on the other side of this storm we are in a lull before Sunday’s rain storm hits. Before then the weather should be pretty nice for January. The longer range forecast calls for average temperatures starting the middle of next week (highs in the 4…

Wow, can the Mid-Atlantic chase season be far behind?”1257 PM TORNADO HUNTINGTON BEA 33.69N 118.01W 01/19/2010 ORANGE CA PUBLIC TORNADO SPOTTED ON PACIFIC COAST HIGHWAY JUST SOUTH OF ANDERSON STREET. THE FUNNEL …