The forecast models are starting to converge on a solution that appears to throw some snow our way this coming Saturday into Sunday. (Surprise! Yet another wet weekend!!) Based on the current amounts of moisture and available surface temperatures we…
Thankfully we seem to be out of the wet gray pattern we’ve been in for a while. Our respite, while chilly, will last through next weekend and the long term forecast doesn’t show any major storm systems headed our way through the middle of next week. …
Last night I attended a Basics 1 Skywarn training as a refresher as I hadn’t had a class since 2005. The briefer was Greg Schoor, one of the forecasters from the NWS Sterling office. During the first half of the class he mentioned he had graduated fr…
Ahhhhh, the models have come in with warmer air at the surface for Sunday’s precipitation event. Thus the ice I was concerned about won’t happen anywhere near here, and the above graphic only holds a 10% probability for ice in the mountains. We will …
We didn’t get any storms out of today’s system, just lots of rain overnight and early morning. Now we’re waiting for the cold front to punch through here and entertain us with wind gusts up to 50 mph. At the moment the front seems to have just crosse…
We are currently under a flood watch for tonight and early tomorrow (Wednesday) due to an approaching system that could dump 1-3″ of rain on our already soaked heads. Looks like we’ll escape the ice that the mountains will see, but the above graphic d…
This SPC graphic shows the potential for tornadoes through 7:00 am tomorrow morning. Given the predicted instability ahead of an approaching cold front and the available wind shear a few isolated tornadoes aren’t out of the question for the eastern ha…
Please keep it over there…I really don’t want to deal with ice around here tomorrow!! Meanwhile pay attention to the forecasts for this coming weekend. There will be plenty of cold air around and a low pressure may form off Cape Hatteras (again!). …
The official NWS Sterling snow report list can be found here. I think my 2″ prediction for Fredericksburg held very close to ground truth (if I do say so myself). Now we have to keep an eye on the next system barreling across the U.S. as we could be …
Sitting here with snow melting – slowly – outside I needed a convective fix so I reviewed some photos from the May 28th King George county chase during which I witnessed a surprise funnel drop under a rain free base to the west. Prior to that I had be…
