The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) latest Day 1 graphic shows us near the junction of a 40% probability of at least 4 inches of snow out of this storm. For the moment I’m sticking with my 2″ prediction, but I reserve the right to stick my…
Okay, I’m wading into deep water here given the usual Virginia paranoia regarding snow. The models all agree that (a) there will be plenty of precipitation available from a developing coastal storm and (b) that the air temperatures will be in the 30’s…
Just to show that the forecast is still moving around, this graphic – issued this afternoon – shows a 10% probability of 4″ of snow just to our west. The chart I saw earlier today had most of eastern Virginia (including us!) in a 40% probability area …
Altho’ there may yet be some precipitation Saturday the surface temperatures are now forecast to be a few degrees warmer than during previous model runs. Thus, the 2-3″ of snow that we might have seen will now likely be rain/snow showers. Also, compa…
In case you hadn’t heard the polar express is headed our way this weekend (and, no, I’m not referring to the Christmas movie). The above graphic shows the forecast for early Monday morning with a solid core of cold air crouching over top us at the 850…
Wow, we deserved today’s great weather after the monsoons of recent weeks! Sunshine, light winds, and high temps near 70 all add up to a good end to the Thanksgiving weekend. Unfortunately the upcoming week it doesn’t look so good. Right now Tuesday…
I have drafted an article (likely falls into the category of “technical note”) regarding my observations of funnels and tornadoes here in the northern Virginia area that otherwise go unwarned and undetected. The premise is that interaction of convect…
Hey, we actually saw some sun yesterday afternoon and stars last night!! A quick check of traffic cameras shows the sun shining brightly west of the Blue Ridge mountains, but fog shows up even in the cams around Raleigh NC. According to the Sterling N…
The column of dust in the center of this photo is a gustnado that my brother recorded during our first “family chasecation” in 2002. We were a bit north of Liberal KS in the southwestern quadrant of the state. The following is my original terse write…
This is the depiction of the wind field over the northeastern U.S. at the 500 mb level (~18,000 ft) for 7:00 a.m. this coming Friday morning. It shows a deep “trough” or dip in the west-to-east winds, meaning a couple of things to us:(1) Strong upper…
