The models seem to indicate that a cold front that was supposed to steam through here on Saturday has slowed and will likely pass through during the night. The above depiction shows a possibility of some precipitation entering the Shenandoah Valley by…
Have you ever had one of those days when it took all the willpower you could muster to avoid taking time off from work just to enjoy the weather? Yep, today was one of those days and it appears that tomorrow will be also. (Of course with tomorrow be…
There have been hints of the western U.S. heat wave creeping in our direction by this coming weekend, but I don’t see it being here for much more than Saturday and maybe Sunday, with high temperatures in the low 90’s. The long range models I’ve looked…
The models are still flipflopping, with one model now calling for chances of convection tomorrow afternoon associated with a “cold” front passage while the other major model predicts the next chance of convection being Thursday. Another scenario has s…
The model forecasts for the upcoming week don’t hold a lot of promise for good chasing weather. Tuesday evening may provide some shower activity but that appears to be headed just north of us. Later in the week another cold air damming situation seem…
This is a graphic showing the potential rainfall amounts for tomorrow, Sunday July 5th. Looks like we’ll have steady rain much of the day, with little or no chance for thunderstorms. Also, the local Sterling NWS forecast discussion indicates the fore…
With the current East Coast upper air trough in place (see previous post) the atmosphere reminds me of a very warm April day. The trough is keeping relatively low humidity air over us, and the result is fairly clear air and blue skies between the mino…
Since we had family in this afternoon I didn’t make preparations to chase, preferring instead to stay local and perhaps catch a glimpse of a nearby storm. Given the line of storms that formed it was a good choice as the whole system appeared to be a r…
This five panel chart shows the forecast for our area starting Thursday morning, but not what you might expect. This is an upper level forecast, showing the 500 millibar (~18,000 feet above us) configuration. What can we tell from this? The low pres…
I just noticed on the blog dashboard that this is my 500th post; guess I should celebrate. So, here are several video captures from yesterday’s chase. The bottom view is of the left-hand storm that came from the split over Orange county. At the righ…
