I did chase this afternoon, but I found little success in doing so. Even tho’ we were initially under a slight risk (which was downgraded to a “See Text” by the SPC) nothing happened in our neck of the woods. All the serious storms scooted up the Sh…

Well, the typical springtime cold air damming wedge has asserted itself over the Mid-Atlantic and is holding the warm front to our south along the NC border. Thus we won’t get into the warm unstable sector until sometime tonight, and I’m not willing t…

http://www.physorg.com/news157210366.htmlWhat, so now I can go chase volcanic eruptions, too?

The above graphic bears out my suspicions posted yesterday that the SPC might issue a Slight Risk for parts of Virginia. The models show a warm front hanging up in the Richmond/Petersburg area for most of the afternoon (typical for early spring), and …

Hmmmmmm…things are looking up for Saturday afternoon and evening. The latest NWS Sterling forecast for our area calls for thunderstorms, and this seems to be borne out by the GFS mixed layer CAPE forecast above. Additionally, the SPC Day 4-8 severe…

I’m grasping at straws, and I freely admit it. The SPC Day 3 convective forecast actually shows a small chance at severe storms for Thursday in the southwestern corner of Virginia. Now, that’s nowhere near exciting enough to hop in the chasemobile an…

Lot’s of action already, and there’s more to come! I checked radar a few times this afternoon and realized that the starting location I would have targeted – west of Wichita KS – would have afforded me a daylight chase of at least two storms that show…

I have been haunting the long range models all weekend and have found little to cheer about regarding chasing opportunities here in northern Virginia. The GFS shows a cold frontal passage next Saturday afternoon, but the European (ECMWF) predicts thi…

As I contemplate the approach of spring I am fighting a virulent strain of SDS (supercell deprivation syndrome) that doesn’t seem likely to be assuaged anytime soon here in the Mid-Atlantic. The above is a depiction of the GFS model prediction of conv…

Okay, I’m officially tired of gray, drippy skies and chilly temperatures while it’s actually warmer and sunny north and west of here. This is a typical cold air damming wedge, which is due to an onshore eastern wind off the cool ocean waters and is so…