It was a bit comical to watch for the longest time as the national media touted what a great buyer’s market we were in during 2011 and 2012.  In reality we were in the deepest throes of a seller’s market because of a very low housing inventory.  The national media appears to always be behind the curve of what is really happening here in our Fredericksburg real estate market.

The low inventory is something we have reported about many times over the last couple of years on our blog and social media accounts.  We were seeing inventory absorption rates in the 2 and 3 month ranges, which is very solidly a seller’s market.  Here is a scale that is generally how absorption rates/inventory levels are viewed by industry professionals.

So for the last couple of years we have hung right in the 3 months to 5 months worth of inventory, with some portions of our market below 3 months… a solid seller’s market.  But, now the tide is shifting.

With the substantial increase in home prices over the last 12 months, a lot of homeowners who wanted to sell but couldn’t, now can sell their homes.  That means increasing inventory… which means a shift in supply and demand.  See this excerpt from the Virginia Association of Realtors…

So they’re starting to enter the market — they’ve been waiting, putting up with too little space, too much space, or that annoying other person for a long time. ["More than 8 million homeowners are ‘resurfacing’" according to RealtyTrac.]

And what happens when supply increases? Anyone? You, in the back. That’s right: Prices drop.

So, where are we now?  In the last 30 days sales were 25% below the average monthly housing sales volume, and we now have an average of 6.4 months of housing inventory.  Click on the chart below to see the statistics for September.

So, what does that mean?  It means we are in a balanced market and heading for a buyer’s market.

That means that sellers need to re-evaluate their listing prices and they should do it quickly.  As is normal with the sliding continuum between buyer and seller markets and the shifting prices, sellers try to dig in on where we currently are.  They then get in a pricing race with other sellers and the result is they sell for far less than they could have.  The better plan is to jump ahead of the curve in pricing and sell for more than they would after a pricing race.

Nothing in this is intended to convey the message that anything is amiss here.  There is no “bubble” coming, rather, in my opinion, we are for the first time in a LONG time experiencing the continuum of a “normal” market cycle.

Then prices will drop a bit because of rising interest rates and higher inventory, eventually then buyers will buy.  Sooner or later the inventory will drop again, and the continuum will shift back toward a seller’s market.  And so on…

Conforming Rates

Government Program Rates

Well, a home of sorts.  After 10 years of searching for the right place to hang my license and countless hours figuring out what directon my business is going, I have found a new real estate company to call home.  As of July 2013, SarahiouslySpeaking and my license have been with Nest Realty Fredericksburg.  Not only have I hung my license with Nest Realty, but I have become the Principal and Managing Broker of the Fredericksburg branch. 

What is Nest Realty?

Founded in 2008, Nest Realty is a full-service real estate brokerage specializing in residential and commercial properties throughout Virginia. Through a strong focus on technology, customer service, and the region’s most innovative and focused marketing strategies, Nest Realty has established itself as a top choice for buyers and sellers of residential and commercial property.

Nest’s standards of excellence carry through to all aspects of our business. At our core, we believe that the greatest strength of our company is the quality of our agents, and we’ve assembled a team of the best and brightest real estate professionals in Virginia. Their list of accomplishments is lengthy, but those achievements pale in comparison to the satisfaction we get from helping our clients “Live Where They Love.”  

And that’s we we do. Help people buy and sell houses.

But the reason why we do it is simple. We believe the real estate experience is often a gateway to the next chapter of your life. The process should be a happy one. Fun. Moving. Exhilarating. It is for us, and we love sharing it with our clients.  

A Sampling of Awards:

• 2013 Inc 5000 Honoree
• 2013 Inman News’ Most Innovative Digital Real Estate Marketing Campaign or Strategy Honoree
• 2012 Virginia Living’s top Real Estate Firms Honoree
• 2009 Inman News’ Most Innovative Brokerage 
• 2009 HP Realtor Technology Award

What does this mean for my current clients? 

Everything will pretty much stay the same for my clients.  If your home is currently listed with me, you just get a new sign in your front yard.  If you are currently searching for a new home with me; we will continue to search for your new home.  If you are currently under contract, we will head to the closing table together.  You should not feel a big jolt during my transition. 

What does this mean for future clients?

This is a very exciting company to be involved with.  Nest Realty prides itself on stellar customer service.  I am working diligently with the team in Charlottesville to provide Fredericksburg with the same systems and tools that have worked so well in our other markets.  You will be offered a more cohesive brand and marketing strategy, as well as an enhanced knowledge of the area as I work to create partnerships throughout the community.  Believe me, all of this will make more sense as you see our systems and tools unveiled. 

What does this mean for my past clients?

You will start to receive new promotional materials from me explaining what Nest Realty can offer you as a former client and Nest friend.  I may even ask you to share your home buying and selling experience with me and let me know how you think the overall experience can be approved.  I will be introducing you to local partnerships we have with other locally owned and operated businesses, in hopes of creating a buy local/ stay local atmosphere.  I will continue to be available to you to answer any real estate related questions, or to just catch up. 

The Next Step

Feel free to contact me with any questions you might have.  Nest also LOVES visitors!  You can always stop by our office at 510 Princess Anne Street Suite 201 and have a cup of coffee and sit for a chat.  You can also visit our parent website www.nestrealty.com and see for yourself how Nest Realty is raising the bar in real estate.  And, be sure to stay tuned for the exciting unveiling of Nest Fredericksburg’s Live Where You Love video series.  You will never look at Fredericksburg the same!

A few days ago, I was in a position to hear a conversation between a potential home seller and one of her friends.  The home seller ( for ease of writing we will call her Ms. Seller) was complaining about the inconvenience of having people coming through her home while it is on the market.  Not uncommon.  One of the least desirable parts of selling a home is the inconveniences associated with property showings.  The next most common complaint is having to keep the house clean and show ready all the time.

As Ms. Seller aired her feelings, her friend says, “Well, I think you should just have open houses and let people come see the home then if they want to see it.”  From the corner of my eye I saw my wife quickly turn her head and look at me.  She was probably gravely concerned about what words were about to roll forth across my lips… She may have expected something like, “Are you freaking kidding me?!?”  But alas I have matured and don’t always immediately speak my mind in such a blunt fashion.

But, here and now I can say… Are you freaking kidding me?  Let’s ponder a couple of things just to start off… these are things that I have learned through a lot of research and from many years of experience as a professional in the Fredericksburg real estate market

1. The  average open house only has 2-4 visitors.
2. Less than 1% of homes sell as a direct result of an open house.
3. The average home buyer looks at 5-10 homes before purchasing a home.

Now, let’s break this down into how it applies to a Fredericksburg home for sale…

THE AVERAGE OPEN HOUSE ONLY HAS 2-4 VISITORS

Even if you had two open houses per month, your likely number of visitors to the home is between 4 and 8 people.  Some statistics show that at least 1/3 of open house visitors are not qualified to purchase, which is why they aren’t already working with a real estate professional.  So, let’s assume you have 6 visitors from two open houses in the first month of being on the market.  That means that you had, at best, 4 potential and qualified prospects look at your home.

If your home were properly priced and marketed and within the normal price range of homes for the area, you in all likelihood, would have met or exceeded that many prospects in the first weekend on the market.  Let alone over the course of a month.

HOMES SELLING VIA OPEN HOUSES

In the days before Multiple Listing Systems (MLS) and the internet (aka the stone age as my , open houses were a fantastic tool to attract potential buyers.  Today, some estimates show that as high as 96% of potential buyers are finding homes online.  They can preview literally dozens and dozens of homes online in the time it took them to go kick the tires at an open house.  It has never been more true that less than 1% of homes will sell via an open house.

AVERAGE NUMBER OF HOMES A BUYER VIEW

The average buyer looks at somewhere between 5 and 10 homes before they purchase a home. (I actually believe these numbers are dropping.)  Now think about that in terms of timing.  I tend to limit homes viewed in a particular day to somewhere around 5-6 homes.  Any more than that, I find that buyers tend to start rushing and forget important details about homes they saw earlier in the day.  So, at my suggested pace, the average buyer is going to look at homes for maybe a couple of days before they purchase a home.

Even if they only viewed a couple of homes a day, they are only out looking at homes for somewhere between 3 and 5 days.  What if your open house is not scheduled during those few days that perfect buyers are looking at homes?

PARTING THOUGHT

If you had two open houses per month, and had lets say even 5 people came through each time, that is 10 potential buyers… if they were all qualified.  In the last 30 days in the Fredericksburg real estate market 342 houses sold.  How many of them might have been perfect candidates for your home that they weren’t allowed to view?

It sounds cliché, and some people roll their eyes at the saying, but it is absolutely true.  Selling your home is partly a numbers game.  The more people who learn about your home and who are compelled to visit your home, the higher your odds of selling your home quickly and for top dollar.

Good luck in selling your home, and let us know if we can help.  Check out the market snapshot in the right side bar for current market conditions.

Luxurious and Affordable! Beautiful and spacious home in the amenity rich Salem Fields neighborhood. Great flowing floor plan, spacious rooms, cozy gas fireplace, large finished basement with a room that could be used as a 5th bedroom, great storage, fenced backyard, deck and patio, and so much more. Looking for the perfect home in a fantastic community? LOOK. NO. MORE. Come see & Welcome home!

Click here to see the full listing including current listing price, photos and details.

Fantastic location on a cul-de-sac street in Salem Fields. This delightful home offers bright and spacious rooms, a much desired open floor plan, and just the perfect touches of elegance. The open floor plan, coupled with the sliding doors that open to a huge deck make this a great home for entertaining. Cozy gas fireplace, kitchen island/breakfast bar, chair rail & crown molding, and much more!

Click here to see the full listing including current listing price, photos and details.

I absolutely LOVE spending time outdoors.  I’d rather be in my canoe casting for bass than most other things.  I love being on the water slowing drifting along a stream as the sun rises or sets.  I love campfires and hiking.

But, when I can’t be on the water or in the woods, I thoroughly enjoy hanging out in great outdoor living spaces.  Barbecuing, firepits or chimneas, entertaining friends outdoors… I enjoy all those things.  That is why when I saw this patio, I loved it!  This is the best of both worlds… suburban living in Lee’s Parke subdivision, mixed with a great outdoor living space. 

Do you love outdoor entertaining?  I think this patio is the the bomb!  Oh, and the deck is pretty awesome too!

This home is for sale… do you know a potential buyer?  Click here to check out the full listing with current listing price, more photos and details. 

It seems that more often than ever these days I meet potential Fredericksburg home buyers who have allergy issues.  Whether the allergies affect the adults or the children, this can be a very serious concern.  So, I thought I’d share this article that I just came across today.  Check it out and if you have any good suggestions please feel free to comment on this post.

Enjoy the best of both worlds…indoor and outdoor living! This elegant & spacious Lee~s Parke home offers premium upgrades throughout making it a fabulously comfortable home. The huge deck and GORGEOUS patio offers a fantastic venue for enjoying the outdoors and entertaining. 2 story foyer, Corian counters, double ovens, kitchen island, rec room, fenced backyard, and so much more. YOU. MUST. SEE….

Click here to see the full listing including current price, photos and more

Beautiful 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath luxury home in the Fawn Lake Community.  Modern, bright and open, this home creates a fabulously comfortable atmosphere, while maintaining an aura of elegance.  Loaded with features…

Click here to see the full listing including current price, photos and more.

SPECIAL FEATURES

• Open floor plan
• Two story family room with a vaulted beamed ceiling, built in bookcases with cabinets, recessed area for T.V. and a gas fireplace.
• Columns define Dining Room, with chair rail and Wainscoting.
• Exceptional tiered crown moulding throughout
• Recessed  lighting throughout
• Spacious Kitchen with breakfast area, granite counters, and a huge granite center island and a desk area.  Ideal for large gatherings and entertaining.
• Master Bedroom with tray ceiling, separate shower and soaking tub, double vanity and walk-in closet
• Hardwood floors throughout
• Back Staircase
• Dual Entry Bathroom
• Second floor overlook to family room
• Large deck
• Portion of backyard fenced in
• Sprinkler system
• Large hot water tank
• Quiet street..cul-de-sac

PHOTO GALLERY