Well, there’s good news and there’s bad news.  I’ll give you the good news first, it’s a buyer’s market… well, sort of.  What?  That wasn’t good news to everyone?  Okay, then, you’re gonna love the bad news.  It’s gonna be a buyer’s market for a while longer.  I say that it is ”sort of” a buyer’s market because banks are in control, not buyers.  Foreclosures are monopolizing the housing inventory, and will monopolize the inventory for a few more years.  This means that the banks that have had to repossess these homes are deciding who gets to purchase the houses.  Banks have gotten smarter over the last year when it comes to selling a foreclosure.  They will now price them very low, in hopes of getting multiple offers, and then start bidding wars between prospective purchasers.  I’ve actually seen foreclosure homes bid up $75,000 over list price!  So, although prices are low, interest rates are low, and more buyers can afford home ownership right now, it’s not quite a buyer’s market.  But don’t get me wrong, banks are not profitting off of these foreclosures!  They are still loosing money hand over fist.  Here’s the market breakdown: 

Fredericksburg City:

• 168 days on market - this is 63 days more than in November 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 84.74% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 15.56 months of inventory on the market
• 11 homes sold in November 2008 - this is 1 less than in November 2007
• The most popular price range was under $100,000 (6 homes sold for under $100,000) 
• The average sold price was $191,618, compared to $327,694 in November of 2007

Orange County

• 141 days on market - this is 28 days less than in November 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 88.02% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 21.3 months of inventory on the market
• 21 homes sold in November 2008 - this is 6 less than in November 2007
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $231,493, compared to $307,441 in November 2007

Spotsylvania County

• 120 days on market - this is 28 less than November 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 87.96% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 11.36 months inventory on the market
• 104 homes sold in November 2008 - this is 19 more than in November 2007
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $239,348, compared to $322,877 in November 2007

Stafford County

• 115 days on market - this is 23 less than November 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 88.13% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 9.13 months inventory on the market
• 117 homes sold in November 2008 - this is 28 more than in November 2007
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $240,598, compared to $348,270 in November 2007

Prince William County

• 107 days on market - this is 25 less than November 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 89.82% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 5.4 months inventory on the market
• 726 homes sold in November 2008 - this is 391 more than in November 2007!
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sold price was $221,504, compared to $350,589 in November 2007

What does this all mean for the non-delinquent seller trying to sell their home traditionally, i.e. no bank involvement?  It means you are going to be competing with foreclosures for some time to come.  You will have to be extremely marketable and priced very well!  Traditional sellers also better be prepared to pay a buyer’s closing costs.  Traditional Sellers need to keep in mind that they are not “giving their homes away” in this market.  If they are walking away from a closing table with a $1 they are fairing far better than most homeowners!  The only people “giving their house away” are short sale sellers and banks.  Those types of sellers are actually loosing money, going into the negative, on what is owed on the loan.  Traditional sellers may not like what this market will allow them to sell their home for, but that doesn’t mean they are “giving away” their home to a buyer.  One day, not anytime soon, traditional sellers will get to bask in the sun again and reap the rewards of little work for high equity.  But right now, our market has some more correcting to do.

September was actually a good month for closings in all counties that I service.  What was slower was the number of showings per listing and the number of houses going under contract.  I expect to see this reflected in the October sold statistics, since most contracts take 30 days to close. We have seen a new surge of buyers in the market the last two week with the passing of the Bailout Bill.  Loans are still out there and interest rates are still reasonable, but the mortgage market should get more challenging as we head into winter.  Here is a county break down of the market statistics for this area:

Fredericksburg City:

• 93 days on market - this 4 days less than in September 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 95.92% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 15.73 months of inventory on the market
• 11 homes sold in September 2008 - this is 2 less than in September 2007
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$349,900
• The average sold price was $224,678, compared to $282,845 in September of 2007 (3 homes sold for less than $100,000 this September)

Orange County

• 174 days on market - this is 29 days more than in September 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 89.24% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 16.4 months of inventory on the market
• 30 homes sold in September 2008 - this is 9 more than in September 2007
• The most popular price range was $250,000-$299,999
• The average sold price was $228,327, compared to $306,020 in September 2007

Spotsylvania County

• 123 days on market - this is two less than September 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 89.5% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 7.86 months inventory on the market
• 161 homes sold in September 2008 - this is 64 more than in September 2007
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $248,780, compared to $318,857 in September 2007

Stafford County

• 116 days on market - this is 19 less than September 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 90.48% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 7.95 months inventory on the market
• 149 homes sold in September 2008 - this is 63 more than in September 2007
• The most popular price range was $300,000-$399,999
• The average sold price was $274,365, compared to $397,342 in September 2007

Prince William County

• 107 days on market - this is 20 less than September 2007
• Sellers received, on average, 91.34% of their list price when the home sold
• There is 4.81 months inventory on the market
• 934 homes sold in September 2008 - this is 629 more than in September 2007!
• The most popular price range was $200,000-$249,999
• The average sold price was $230,999, compared to $370,506 in September 2007

On average homes are sitting on the market less time in September 2008 than they did in September 2007.  We have faster absorption rates than last year and more homes are selling.  Sellers are selling their homes for amounts closer to their list price, but they are selling their homes for an average of $93,564.20 less than what they were selling for last year.  A great deal of this disparity can be attributed to the foreclosure and short sale markets.  The most popular price ranges are consistantly the first-time home buyer price ranges. 

What does this mean for you if you are a buyer?  You can still get a good deal, but the deal is that homes are priced far less than they were a year ago and way cheaper than they were 2 years ago.  As a buyer you can still expect to make offers close to list price, especially if you are asking the Seller to pay your closing costs.  Many banks are actually pricing properties below market value in hopes of getting multiple offers and starting bidding wars.  (By the way, this tactic is working). 

What does this mean if you are a seller?  It is a PRICE driven market.  I cannot say that enough!  PRICE DRIVEN!  You are competing with foreclosures.  You need to make your home stand out from the foreclosures any way you can.  You need to maintain your home and keep records of repairs.  You need to make your home modern and buyer friendly.  Spend the extra money to declutter and stage your home.  And most inportantly, price your home well!  It is an awful feeling to chase the market.  Stay on top of the market by pricing it right the first time.